My Twitter

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Saturday, 18 October 2008

What is going on with the inflation indexed treasuries?

Posted on 11:55 by Unknown
Strange things are happening in markets, but one development that I have seen little comment on is what is happening in the US treasury market. The Treasury has been issuing traditional bonds (where the coupon is set at the time of the issue) and inflation-indexed bonds (where a real return of return is guaranteed at the time of the issue) for more than a decade now. On September 12, 2008, the nominal 10-year treasury bond rate was about 3.8% and the interest rate on the inflation-indexed treasury was about 1.7%. In fact, the difference can be viewed as a market expectation of inflation over the 10 years (about 2.1% a year). Those numbers had been stable for years before.
For the first 10 days of the crisis, the relationship held, with the 10-year nominal and real rates staying relatively unchanged. About 2 weeks ago, the ten-year real rate started rising even though the nominal rate remained unchanged. On Friday, the nominal 1o-year rate was 3.9% (about 0.1% higher than it was at the start of the crisis) but the real rate had rised to 3%. I have attempted the following explanations but none hold up:
1. The real interest rate has risen because savers are more worried about investing in any type of financial asset. (Counter: If this is the case, why has the nominal rate also not risen)
2. Expected inflation has decreased because the economy has slowed. (Counter: If this is the case, both the nominal and real rates should have come down. It is also hard for me to believe that all these obligations taken on by the Federal government will not translate into higher inflation, not lower.)
The only explanation that I can think off is that investors who traditionally hold the inflation-indexed treasuries are selling them for liquidity reasons. If that is the case, we should expect a bounce back in the real interest rate to more conventional levels (about 1.5-2%), which would make inflation-indexed treasuries a great investment. The next few weeks should tell.
Email ThisBlogThis!Share to XShare to Facebook
Posted in | No comments
Newer Post Older Post Home

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • Equity Risk Premiums and the Fear of Catastrophe
    As many of you already know, I am a little fixated on the equity risk premium. More than any variable, it explains what happens in equity ma...
  • Twitter announces IPO: The Valuation
    A little more than a week ago, I posted my first take on Twitter and argued that even in the absence of financial information from the comp...
  • Buffett and Munger... Shock value!
    Berkshire Hathaway is having its annual meeting and the financial press is falling all over itself reporting what the sage from Omaha has to...
  • Asset selection & Valuation in Illiquid Markets
    In my last post, I looked at how the asset allocation decision can be altered by differences in liquidity across asset classes, with the uns...
  • The future of the MBA
    As someone who has a vintage MBA (from 1981) and has taught MBAs for almost thirty years, I have been spending the last few months wondering...
  • Growth (Part 4): Growth and Management Credibility
    If you buy a growth company, the bulk of the value that you attach to the company comes from its growth assets. For these growth assets to b...
  • Alternatives to the CAPM: Part 5. Risk Adjusting the cash flows
    In the last four posts, I laid our alternatives to the CAPM beta, but all of them were structured around adjusting the discount rate for ris...
  • Unstable risk premiums: A new paper
    I am back from a long hiatus from posting, but I had nothing profound (even mildly so) to post and I was on vacation for a couple of weeks a...
  • Many a slip between the cup & the lip: From forward value to value per share today
    Valuing young, growth companies is never easy to do but it is well worth doing, partly because it forces you think through the business that...
  • Governments and Value III: Bribery, Corruption and other "Dark" Costs
    In this last post on the effects of government on valuations, I want to return to the value destructive effects that corruption, bribery and...

Categories

  • Acquisitions
  • Corporate Governance
  • Data Observations
  • Dividends and cash balances
  • Equity Risk Premiums
  • Facebook
  • Facebook IPO
  • Governments and value
  • I
  • Information
  • Introduction to web site
  • Investment Philosophy
  • IPO
  • liquidity
  • prices and value
  • Private Equity
  • Taxes and value
  • Teaching
  • The
  • Value and Pricing
  • Value Investing
  • Value of a franchise
  • Value of growth
  • Year end

Blog Archive

  • ►  2013 (36)
    • ►  November (2)
    • ►  October (7)
    • ►  September (7)
    • ►  August (1)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (2)
    • ►  May (1)
    • ►  April (2)
    • ►  March (2)
    • ►  February (5)
    • ►  January (3)
  • ►  2012 (49)
    • ►  December (8)
    • ►  November (3)
    • ►  October (4)
    • ►  September (3)
    • ►  August (3)
    • ►  July (2)
    • ►  June (5)
    • ►  May (5)
    • ►  April (6)
    • ►  March (3)
    • ►  February (3)
    • ►  January (4)
  • ►  2011 (55)
    • ►  December (3)
    • ►  November (3)
    • ►  October (5)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  August (4)
    • ►  July (3)
    • ►  June (3)
    • ►  May (4)
    • ►  April (7)
    • ►  March (5)
    • ►  February (6)
    • ►  January (6)
  • ►  2010 (45)
    • ►  December (5)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (4)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  July (1)
    • ►  June (4)
    • ►  May (2)
    • ►  April (3)
    • ►  March (5)
    • ►  February (4)
    • ►  January (5)
  • ►  2009 (60)
    • ►  December (3)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (5)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  August (3)
    • ►  July (3)
    • ►  June (4)
    • ►  May (4)
    • ►  April (5)
    • ►  March (9)
    • ►  February (7)
    • ►  January (5)
  • ▼  2008 (42)
    • ►  December (6)
    • ►  November (8)
    • ▼  October (13)
      • Another strange incident... in a market full of an...
      • What is the message the market is sending?
      • The New World Order: How this crisis affects valua...
      • What is going on with the inflation indexed treasu...
      • Is preferred stock equity?
      • Black, blue and white swans: Comments on Taleb
      • Markets for sports outcomes- The long odds bias!
      • Gold, fine art and collectibles...
      • Diversification: Why is it not working?
      • Is it time to make the move?
      • Explaining the Market....
      • The Buffett Gambit: Buying (Selling) Credibility
      • Mark to Market or Not to Mark to Market?
    • ►  September (15)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

Unknown
View my complete profile