Low riskfree rates...

One of the many perils of valuing a company in the US or Europe right now is that the riskfree rates in US dollars and Euros are at unprecedented lows - about 2.3% in US $ and about 2.8% in Euros. Analysts, confronted with these riskfree rates, are faced with a quandary. If they use the low riskfree rates, they end up with low discount rates which then result in high valuations. To get around this problem, many are asking the question: Are riskfree rates too low and should we replace them with higher normalized rates (perhaps average rates over time)? Good question, but the wrong place to ask it...

Let me take a step back. It is true that riskfree rates are low but they are not the only numbers at unusual levels. Equity risk premiums and default spreads are at historical highs and the worry about global economic growth is deeper than at time in recent history. When we use low riskfree rates in valuation, we have to accompany them with much higher risk premiums than we would have used a few months ago, lower real growth and lower expected inflation. The net effect is that intrinsic values are lower now than they were a few months ago. 

What gets analysts into trouble is inconsistency. If we use today's riskfree rates and stick with risk premiums that we used to use in the past and growth rates and inflation rates that are also from the past, we will over value companies. The culprit is not the low riskfree rates but internal inconsistency. 

My advice is that you stay with today's riskfree rates but update the other numbers you use in valuation to reflect the environment we face right now. If you insist on replacing today's riskfree rate with your normalized number, you should then adjust all your other numbers to be consistent - not easy to do, in my view. 

Finally, I have a paper on riskfree rates that you may find useful (or not). You can find it by clicking on this link.

I hope you find it useful.