My Twitter

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Sunday, 7 June 2009

Culprit found for market crisis!!!!

Posted on 05:45 by Unknown
You can now sleep better at night. Jeremy Grantham, market strategist for GMO, an institutional asset management firm, has found the culprit for the market crisis. According to Grantham, the efficient market hypothesis is to blame for the financial crisis. Quoting Mr. Grantham, "The incredibly inaccurate efficient market theory was believed in totality by our financial leaders.... It left our economic and government establishment sitting by confidently, even as a lethally dangerous combination of asset bubbles, lax controls, pernicious incentives and wickedly complicated instruments led to our current plight". Clearly Mr. Grantham has a gift for hyperbole but is he speaking the truth? Let's take apart his claims:

1. "Incredibly inaccurate efficient market theory": Perhaps, but my understanding of efficient markets is different from Mr. Grantham. My understanding is that very few investors can beat the market in an efficient market, and there is a catch in almost any strategy that claims to make money easily. I am not sure what part of this statement is inaccurate and I would love to be enlightened. It does take a lot of gumption for someone with Mr. Grantham's track record to talk about inaccuracy, but you are welcome to check out his history:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Grantham/

2. "Believed in totality by our financial leaders": Interesting. I did not know that we had financial leaders, but I guess Mr. Grantham is talking about the academia and investment banks. If it is academia, he is wrong, because almost every problem with market efficiency has been uncovered by academia, and academics (such as Robert Shiller) were among the first to draw attention to the dot-com and housing bubbles. It could not be investment bankers that he is referring to, because almost everything they do is premised on markets being inefficient. After all, what would the point of securitization be, if every one paid a fair price and there were no easy profits? Or of acquisitions, when all target companies trade at the right price?

3. "Lethally dangerous combination of asset bubbles, lax controls, pernicious incentives and wickedly complicated instruments": Market efficiency is to blame for all of these? Really? So, let's see.
- The efficient market hypothesis is about 40 years old. There must have been no asset bubbles before then. I wonder how those investors in South Sea stock (London in 1711) and tulip bulbs (Amsterdam in 1637) got their hands on the efficient market hypothesis.
- Lax controls? The financial services sector, the most controlled and regulated sector in the economy, was the one that precipitated this crisis.
- Pernicious incentives? I don't disagree, but how can you blame the efficient market hypothesis for compensation contracts that tied traders' pay to how much profit they made in a yer.
- And wickedly complicated instruments? Sure, but there would be no point to these instruments in an efficient market, since everything would be fairly priced. It was people who believed that markets were inefficient who created these instruments with the intent of exploiting inefficiencies.

I guess I must be a dreamer to even think that efficient markets have a shot in the face of Grantham's well thought out arguments. After all, in an efficient market, active portfolio managers will, on average, under perform the market, returns will decrease with trading activity, equity research analysts will provide little value added to investors and market strategists will be useless appendages at investment houses, making meaningless forecasts about future market movements. Never mind! I think I have made my case.
Email ThisBlogThis!Share to XShare to Facebook
Posted in | No comments
Newer Post Older Post Home

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • Equity Risk Premiums and the Fear of Catastrophe
    As many of you already know, I am a little fixated on the equity risk premium. More than any variable, it explains what happens in equity ma...
  • Twitter announces IPO: The Valuation
    A little more than a week ago, I posted my first take on Twitter and argued that even in the absence of financial information from the comp...
  • Buffett and Munger... Shock value!
    Berkshire Hathaway is having its annual meeting and the financial press is falling all over itself reporting what the sage from Omaha has to...
  • Asset selection & Valuation in Illiquid Markets
    In my last post, I looked at how the asset allocation decision can be altered by differences in liquidity across asset classes, with the uns...
  • The future of the MBA
    As someone who has a vintage MBA (from 1981) and has taught MBAs for almost thirty years, I have been spending the last few months wondering...
  • Growth (Part 4): Growth and Management Credibility
    If you buy a growth company, the bulk of the value that you attach to the company comes from its growth assets. For these growth assets to b...
  • Alternatives to the CAPM: Part 5. Risk Adjusting the cash flows
    In the last four posts, I laid our alternatives to the CAPM beta, but all of them were structured around adjusting the discount rate for ris...
  • Unstable risk premiums: A new paper
    I am back from a long hiatus from posting, but I had nothing profound (even mildly so) to post and I was on vacation for a couple of weeks a...
  • Many a slip between the cup & the lip: From forward value to value per share today
    Valuing young, growth companies is never easy to do but it is well worth doing, partly because it forces you think through the business that...
  • Governments and Value III: Bribery, Corruption and other "Dark" Costs
    In this last post on the effects of government on valuations, I want to return to the value destructive effects that corruption, bribery and...

Categories

  • Acquisitions
  • Corporate Governance
  • Data Observations
  • Dividends and cash balances
  • Equity Risk Premiums
  • Facebook
  • Facebook IPO
  • Governments and value
  • I
  • Information
  • Introduction to web site
  • Investment Philosophy
  • IPO
  • liquidity
  • prices and value
  • Private Equity
  • Taxes and value
  • Teaching
  • The
  • Value and Pricing
  • Value Investing
  • Value of a franchise
  • Value of growth
  • Year end

Blog Archive

  • ►  2013 (36)
    • ►  November (2)
    • ►  October (7)
    • ►  September (7)
    • ►  August (1)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (2)
    • ►  May (1)
    • ►  April (2)
    • ►  March (2)
    • ►  February (5)
    • ►  January (3)
  • ►  2012 (49)
    • ►  December (8)
    • ►  November (3)
    • ►  October (4)
    • ►  September (3)
    • ►  August (3)
    • ►  July (2)
    • ►  June (5)
    • ►  May (5)
    • ►  April (6)
    • ►  March (3)
    • ►  February (3)
    • ►  January (4)
  • ►  2011 (55)
    • ►  December (3)
    • ►  November (3)
    • ►  October (5)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  August (4)
    • ►  July (3)
    • ►  June (3)
    • ►  May (4)
    • ►  April (7)
    • ►  March (5)
    • ►  February (6)
    • ►  January (6)
  • ►  2010 (45)
    • ►  December (5)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (4)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  July (1)
    • ►  June (4)
    • ►  May (2)
    • ►  April (3)
    • ►  March (5)
    • ►  February (4)
    • ►  January (5)
  • ▼  2009 (60)
    • ►  December (3)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (5)
    • ►  September (6)
    • ►  August (3)
    • ►  July (3)
    • ▼  June (4)
      • Valuing declining and distressed companies
      • Valuing Young Companies
      • Macro and Market Timers
      • Culprit found for market crisis!!!!
    • ►  May (4)
    • ►  April (5)
    • ►  March (9)
    • ►  February (7)
    • ►  January (5)
  • ►  2008 (42)
    • ►  December (6)
    • ►  November (8)
    • ►  October (13)
    • ►  September (15)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

Unknown
View my complete profile